Climate experts say the goal of keeping long-term global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) is moving out of reach. Nations need to set more ambitious goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions despite months of record-breaking heat on land and sea, leaving the world on track for temperatures that will be unsustainable for human civilizations and biodiversity alike.
“We’re getting close to the point of no return,” said Ilona Otto, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “It’s important to realize that.”
Even as envoys gathered in Bonn in early June to prepare for this year’s annual climate talks in November, average global surface air temperatures were more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for several days. According to the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service, a similar pattern was seen on ocean surfaces.
The unrelenting record warmth is a sign that we’re amid a “horrific” climate crisis, said the head of the Worldwide Fund for Nature. It starkly contrasts the ambitions of many countries, which need to catch up to the targets outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit climate warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius.
As temperatures rise, we’re rapidly losing ice sheets and coral reefs and seeing wildfires wreak havoc across the globe. In the past few years, heat has contributed to a rise in sea levels, driven by melting glaciers and ice sheets, as well as the thermal expansion of water. In a worrying trend, levels of methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, have also surged and, in recent years, have topped the record highs set in 2013.
To spur action, a group of corporate leaders, including the heads of Walmart, Target, Google, Microsoft, and Apple, signed an open letter last year urging President Donald Trump to take aggressive steps to tackle climate change. But that effort could backfire, as it may alienate the Republicans who control Congress and are a crucial base for the business lobbyists that shape policies.
The letter also urged the administration to support international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But that approach will likely face a tough road since many nation-state signatories are either major producers or consumers of fossil fuels and are unlikely to be willing to see their economic interests jeopardized.
Ultimately, only a “social tipping point” can spur action and speed up the process of reducing emissions and limiting climate change, scientists say. That could involve something as concrete as a dramatic drop in the price of renewable energy that would make it more cost-effective than burning fossil fuels or more abstract, like a cultural shift toward viewing fossil fuels as immoral. Either way, it needs to happen fast. In a paper published in Science last year, Otto and 13 other researchers argued that it could be as early as 2030 before we pass crucial “tipping points” that would make avoiding catastrophic climate change impossible.
